Greece Eyes Energy Options, But Investment Gap Looms

 After six years of recession and economic contraction, Greece have set their sights on a long-awaited start to recovery, including an energy push that promises new exploration efforts and an expansion of existing projects. However, Athens’ push has been weighed down by economic realities, making the country’s energy aspirations an elusive goal.

To start with, Greece’s promotion efforts have recently been undercut by contradictory forecasts by international observers like the OECD. After predicting the first positive growth forecasts in nearly six years, Athens was faced with an OECD report predicting further contraction in the year ahead and possibly even further bailout packages.

“The need for further assistance to achieve fiscal sustainability cannot be excluded,” the report said, according to the BBC.” If negative macroeconomic risks materialise… serious consideration should be given to further assistance to achieve debt sustainability.”

It’s against this backdrop that Greece is attempting to sell itself as a viable option for foreign investors, which is vital to the country’s ability to kickstart a domestic energy sector.

“They need to overcome a trust gap,” said Costas Mitropoulos, executive director at PwC at an event organized by the Hellenic-American Chamber of Commerce exploring the country’s recovery and economic potential in Athens this week.

Government officials responded by saying the pace of regulatory reform is putting them on track for a strong recovery, well in line with the demands of international partners and lenders, including the International Monetary Fund.

If they are able to close that gap in the months ahead, Greece has a number of energy sector projects that would benefit from an increase in FDI, most importantly a push to open up exploration efforts in offshore areas of the country.

Building on enthusiasm surrounding a broader Eastern Mediterranean gas effort and a U.S. Geological Society report that suggested Greek waters could be home to billions of barrels of oil, energy actors are now seizing on a new study from Norway’s Petroleum Geo-Services. The study detailed a seismic survey of an area in the Ionian Sea that shared geological features of earlier hydrocarbon discoveries.

The study was hailed by Environment, Energy and Climate Change Minister Yannis Maniatis at a conference in early November to representatives of international energy firms, including Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, OMV, RWE, Shell and Petronas, according to the UPI.

 

Refinery Progress Highlight’s Egypt’s Domestic Downstream Push

After years of delays and challenges from inside the country and out, Egypt’s new refinery project appears poised to finally break ground and it could not come at a better time.

In the two years since the collapse of the government of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has faced significant challenges to meeting domestic energy needs thanks to increasing demand, an unsustainable state subsidy program and an overall loss of confidence on the part of production partners. In an effort to cut down on costly imports, the country’s new government has pushed for substitution options, the most notable of which is a $3.7 billion refinery projects helmed by Citadel Capital.

First proposed in 2007, the project has encountered a series of obstacles to completion including a wider global economic slowdown that made securing needed financing all but impossible. More importantly, Egypt became the poster case for the Arab Spring, spurring the collapse of the long-standing government of Mubarak. This development pulled the rug out from under the country’s business environment, again, making financing a difficult goal to reach.

Still, while financing the project took far longer than they expected, Citadel was able to close the process last summer, clearing the way for the project finally moving forward. The facility will produce more than 4.2 million tons of refined product a year, halving the country’s imports and saving the government an expected $300 million during that time. Most importantly for a country facing an increasingly frustrated population that has faced blackouts and cuts in services due to fuel shortages, the facility means a long-awaited boost in downstream capacity.

Citadel was able to meet financing needs with the help of a number of outside actors that looked past the country’s current uncertainty. These have included the African Development Bank, the European Investment Bank and Qatar who have pledged billions in investment and support for Egypt over the last several months.

Other efforts to curb dependence on expensive imports at a time of political and economic volatility have included possible new trade deals with Iraq and a soft credit crude agreement with Libya. 

Image: Arabian Business

Originally Posted: Newsbase Downstream Monitor, All Rights Reserved

Italian Offshore Back on Track but Progress Has Been Limited

Almost a year after Rome reversed a ban on offshore drilling, Italy’s energy sector is showing signs of life with new efforts and interest on the part of foreign firms.

This month has seen progress reported by   Petroceltic, Northern Petroleum and Mediterranean Oil and Gas regarding offshore efforts in Italian waters. However, despite such advancements, progress has been limited in improving the country’s overall energy standing – a situation made worse by a toxic political and economic environment and local opposition.

The Mario Monti government announced an end to a ban on drilling within five nautical miles of Italian shores that had been put into place following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

The purpose of the government’s reversal on offshore drilling last year was two-fold. First, an increase in domestic production would help ease the country’s current, heavy dependence on foreign producers. Italy brings in about 90 percent of its oil and gas needs from outside the country and has seen alternative energy options evaporate over the last three years, making those imports all the more important. While renewable development has suffered amid a wave of government cuts and a loss of investor confidence brought on by the country’s economic crisis, Italy’s push to reintroduce nuclear power disappeared almost as soon as news of Japan’s Fukushima disaster reached Rome.

Second, the financial benefits of a boost in domestic production could help jumpstart Italy’s ailing economy, offering little in the way of investment options to outside investors. When the Monti government announced the plan to ditch the offshore ban, the country’s Economic Development Minister Corrado Passera predicted that expected increases in output allowed by the revision could bring in as much as 15 billion euros, while reducing the country’s energy bill by about 6 billion euros, according to Bloomberg.

Nearly a year on from the ban reversal, Italy’s energy options have offered little relief due to a precarious economic and political environment as well as instability in Algeria and Libya, two of the country’s largest providers of oil and gas.

Complicating the offshore situation still further has been the actions of local environmental and political advocacy groups. Even before the 2010 ban had been into place, groups in Sicily and along the Adriatic coast had pushed for drilling bans in the name of environmental and tourism protection. Although the ban has been reversed on a national level, local groups have still challenged exploration efforts in individual cases leading to production delays.

Offshore may have returned to Italy, but it is still far from clear whether it can provide the diversification and revenues

Image: Rigzone.com

Originally Posted: Newsbase Euroil Monitor

Northern Mali Threat Continues to Cast Shadow Over Algerian Energy

Despite the apparent success of a French-led military force in ridding Northern Mali from an armed separatist movement, recent violence has suggested that significant challenges remain to both that country and the energy sectors of its neighbors.

As recently as this past weekend, a car bomb and violence were reported in Timbuktu, once again highlighting the uncertainty of the region and the challenges of those in the region in need of a more stable business environment.

As much of North Africa has struggled with wide-ranging political opposition movements, resulting in the collapse of long-standing governments, Algeria has remained unchallenged by protest efforts. Rather, threats to the country’s stability have come from outside, with substantial pressure coming from a stretch of Mali along the country’s southern border. The country has struggled with an armed separatist movement for months, which seized authority from national troops late last year.

This pressure boiled over into Algeria in January with a coordinated raid on a BP gas site, spurring a messy government response and ending with the death of 38 foreign workers. The impact was immediate, with foreign firms suggesting delays to protect their personnel and neighboring Libya promising swift action against any similar events.  

More than just an unfortunate turn of events for a country that relies heavily on energy revenues for just about every aspect of government spending, the event presented a real threat to vital foreign investment needed to strengthen and expand the country’s infrastructure.  Algeria currently boasts access to about 12.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and 159 tcf of natural gas, with the U.S. as one of their largest trading partners.

However, a recent decline in local production and a push to tap into the country’s sizable shale potential have highlighted the role of foreign investment in the country’s immediate energy growth plans. To reach new output goals, Algeria will contribute billions from their own coffers towards boosting downstream capacity, but they will also need to partner with foreign partners who can offer the investment support and technical know-how needed to boost production exploit shale reserves in the near future.

Algeria has promoted substantial shale potential, attracting a number of necessary foreign firms to their shores, each providing the equipment and experience needed for the introduction of shale to the region. Keeping them in place may prove a little more difficult unless Algeria can provide a more stable working environment, making the kind of flare-ups seen this week all the more damaging.  

Originally Posted: Newsbase’s MEA Downstream Monitor

Photo: Mem.algeria.com

Moroccan Downstream Offers Unclear Picture Ahead of Large Cap Entries

Recent entries by large cap actors into Morocco’s oil and gas sector over the last three months have signaled a new confidence regarding the country’s largely dormant hydrocarbon potential. With Chevron and Portugal’s Galp taking on controlling stakes in areas previously claimed by only modest, independent operators, Morocco’s push to expand their traditional energy potential appears to be gaining traction. However, with the North African nation’s domestic demand at the heart of this push, it remains unclear whether its weakened downstream potential will be able to meet expected growth.

Despite a virtually non-existent oil and gas sector, Morocco has recently made a subtle push towards appealing to foreign firms in order to explore the country’s offshore and non-traditional options. So far, efforts to broaden the country’s energy potential have included only renewable campaigns, including a 2009, $9 billion solar scheme, and attracting smaller firms to potential oil and gas fields. However, over the last two months, both Chevron and Galp have bought into controlling stakes of offshore projects. For Galp, an early December purchase from Australia’s Tangiers was driven by a 450 million barrel potential reserve, which was revised to an estimated 750 million barrels following further studies.

Making a more sizable statement as one of the world’s largest actors, Chevron inked an offshore deal with Morocco’s Offices National Des Hydrocarbures Et Des Mines to take on seismic studies of the Cap Rhir Deep, Cap Cantin Deep, and Cap Walidia Deep efforts.

However, as the country explores their domestic potential as a way of easing dependence on expensive and increasingly volatile imports, Morocco’s downstream potential does not appear to be keeping pace. As of 2011, the country boasts only a single refinery at Mohammedia following the conversion of their Sidi Kacem facility to a distribution plant. Despite a long-running modernization push as a part of an agreement between Rabat and state operator, Samir, the plant has seen partial slowdowns in output over the last year. These pauses have been the result of scheduled maintenance and expansion plans that have included upgrades to a new crude distillation unit and a jet fuel facility, which can produce 600,000 metric tons a year. This effort is a part of a broader strategy to add 4m tonnes of refined oil per year, according to Reuters.

While these efforts appear to address current domestic demand, it is far less clear whether a single plant will be able to meet an increase in local production should Galp or Chevron gain traction over the coming year or two.

Origionally Posted: Newsbase’s MEA Downstream Monitor

Spanish Scandal Could Force Energy Strategy Change

After a turbulent first year of cuts aimed reducing a crippling deficit, Spain’s energy sector could see a shift in direction as a corruption scandal threatens the current conservative government.

Since taking office after early elections just before the New Year in 2011, the government led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has led a campaign of cuts and adjustments meant to drive down an energy sector deficit that greeted them around $30 billion.  Attributing the daunting amount to unsustainable government subsidy programs, Rajoy and his Minister of Industry, José Manuel Soria set out a series of cuts that have spurred appeals to the European Commission and lawsuits from investment firms.

However, the fate of Mariano’s party leadership in Madrid has recently been cast into doubt amid allegations that senior officials had received secret cash payments after the practice was made illegal in 2007. Rajoy denied any wrong-doing following an extensive report published in Spain’s national daily, El Pais detailing payments to him as late as 2008. The El Pais report was quickly followed by calls for Rajoy’s resignation and denials from party officials.

While it is not yet clear whether a return to the Socialist leadership that led the country for eight years before Rajoy would signal a change in pace, it is even less clear whether voters would hand the reigns back to the left should the conservatives be forced from office. Recently, both of the country’s largest political parities have seen support erode thanks to their handling of the economic crisis. On the local level, this has allowed support to shift to smaller, less centrist parties.

However, even if Rajoy remains in power – which regional observers expect he will – the government’s approach to the energy sector will likely see a change in the New Year. Despite the government’s cuts and general deficit reduction strategy, the energy sector’s deficit has continued to rise in recent months casting doubt on their approach. While Soria and company predicted a slowdown as a result of the cuts, which have focused on solar and wind subsidies; the deficit has actually grown at double the expected rate. Soria has signaled a different approach in the coming year and insisted once again that further cuts will not include retroactive actions.

This expected reversal reflects a broader trend in Spanish economic improvement, which has largely relied on cuts in spending and services across the country’s seventeen communities. With unemployment continuing to rise and economic growth stagnant, Madrid and Brussels alike have suggested an approach that does not focus so much on austerity and may include additional efforts aimed at growth.

Image: Iberosphere.com

Originally Posted: Newsbase Euroil Monitor

Italy’s Elections Offering Few Energy Specifics Beyond More Local Control

As Italy prepares to go to the polls after months of frustration about tighter government spending policies and slow recovery, the country’s energy sector faces a wave of uncertainty as candidates hint at solutions, but offer few specifics.

The late February elections present a stand off between supporters of an increasingly unpopular technocratic government led by Mario Monti and critics of his tighter belt approach, led by a newly resurgent Silvio Berlusconi, or as the Christian Science Monitor described it, “the populism of short-term fixes and the long-term reforms necessary to make Italy’s economy solvent, competitive, and sustainable over the long run.

So far, leaders of all sides have hinted at what the country could see as far as expanding an energy sector that is largely dependence on foreign resources for oil and natural gas. After a reversal of an offshore drilling ban late last year, Monti unveiled plans to more than double domestic crude production, suggesting increased development of local resources in favor of expensive and uncertain imports. Similarly, the head of the center-left alliance, Pier Luigi Bersani said he would emphasize domestic reserves with a concentration on natural gas and a further reduction of state support for renewable options, according to Dow Jones. For his part, Berlusconi has offered few specifics, but does bring with him deep ties to Russian producers and affection for a nuclear return in the country.

More than a specific threat to Italy’s energy sector, the country’s national elections are proving to be a source of concern to the economy and investors in general. Despite recent declines in borrowing costs, after a series of painfully high auctions, Italy has seen investors grow skittish about the future or at least about the instability that could accompany a political transition. At the heart of this are critics of the current administration’s strict spending cuts and tax reforms, introduced in an attempt to reduce stress on the economy, with many taking aim at the appointed leadership of Mario Monti. While a full return to power by Berlusconi is not expected, the former prime minister’s ability to block a full parliamentary majority could shatter confidence about Rome’s ability to stay the course and scare off nervous investors. However, even if a Democratic majority is achieved, some have suggested that their policies may prove to be just as destabilizing.

“I’m investing in the euro zone but not in Italy, because although they have a primary surplus, there’s huge uncertainty politically,” Torgeir Hoien, head of fixed income at $19 billion Norwegian investment firm Skagen told Reuters.” What kind of policies will the Democratic Party pursue if they win?”

Originally Posted in Newsbase’s Euroil Monitor

 

 

 

North African Energy Targeted by Labor Concerns

After nearly two years of widespread political and social transitions across North Africa, protest and labor movements have continued to expand in hopes of making the most of the new political environment. While motivations may vary, these groups are increasingly targeting the region’s energy sector in Libya, Tunisia and Algeria, commonly aiming their ire at foreign firms and their local subsidiaries.

Against a backdrop of regional unrest, these energy-aimed efforts are to continuing to increase and beginning to threaten what many feel is North Africa’s quickest and surest route to recovery and post-Arab Spring stability.

In many cases, protests and labor strikes have taken issue with what is felt to be a lack of common benefit from the region’s rich oil and gas production. From Tunis to Benghazi, this has centered on the complaint that far too little of the region’s oil and gas wealth and revenue is reaching local communities.

A Post Arab Spring Analysis

In Tunisia, critics have taken issue with what they feel is a lack of work opportunities for local workers offered by the country’s most prominent energy outfit, BG and their local subsidiary BG Tunisia. Facing a 17.6 percent post-revolution unemployment rate, Tunisia has been unable to keep up with and absorb the growth in increasingly skilled young workers, according to a World Bank report.

Facing a similar demand for more work opportunities, but without the spike in skilled labor, Libya has seen protest movements target oil and gas facilities across the country, including a December strike at one of the country’s busiest oil and gas ports, Ras Lanuf. Protestors began the New Year with a strike at the Zueitina oil terminal, situated just east of Tripoli. According to the country’s Oil and Gas Minister, Abdul Bari Laroussi, the shutdown has come with a demand to employ 1,500 local residents and cost the country an estimated $1 million a day in lost revenue.

Additionally, Libya has seen protest groups use energy facilities to voice concerns about a variety of issues, most notably political representation. Shortly before the country’s first post-revolution election, armed militias occupied refineries in El-Sider, Ras Lanuf and Brega, shutting down half of the country’s export capacity. Their actions were aimed at increasing the number of seats reserved for the country’s oil-rich eastern provinces and shifting more authority over energy issues to the city of Benghazi.

Despite having largely escaped the kind of public protests that led to political transitions across the region, Algeria has faced its own share of protests aimed at the incredibly valuable oil and gas sector. Even before the Arab Spring protests began, Algeria faced a pushback from the country’s large number of unemployed for what they felt to be a lack of opportunities for local workers. Undoubtedly the country’s largest economic force, Algeria’s oil and gas production accounts for 98 percent of their export revenue and a large percentage of government funding. State efforts to curb these protests through increasing government incentives spending and a tighter security environment have worked in the short term. However, protests have continued to flare up as resentment builds around a lack of benefits seen across the country as well as wider uncertainty about what will follow the expected retirement of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika before scheduled elections in 2014.

According to a Bloomberg report, dwindling oil reserves and uncertainty have made the country’s relative calm difficult to sustain.

“Pacification through finance can’t go on forever,” Azzedine Layachi, a professor of international and Middle East affairs at St. John’s University in New York and Rome, told Bloomberg. “Everything is in shutdown mode until 2014 and that’s when we’ll see what direction Algeria takes.”

An Uncertain Landscape for Foreign Investors

In all three national cases, further labor unrest and protests aimed at energy sector actors could have a significant effect on the ability to attract much-needed investment and interest from foreign firms. In Libya, this means the ability to promote the full return of companies that halted operations in the midst of the civil violence that brought down the government of Muammar Gadaffi and move beyond pre-conflict levels to ensure future growth. While Tunisia is putting less emphasis on energy reserves as a means of economic recovery, continuing unrest does threaten to put off further investment from companies like BG, which provides over half of the country’s natural gas demand.

Last year, sit-ins at processing plants spurred talks between the company and local leaders, concluding in pledges for greater attention to local hires, including training options. Recently the company has said that while they would not consider leaving the county as a result of the sit-ins, they did not see themselves in a wider labor role.

“We continue to work in Tunisia and to explore new opportunities. Although the phenomenon of sit-ins and strikes is annoying, the group will not leave the country for all that,” Sami Iskander, Executive Vice-President and Managing Director of BG, Africa, Middle East and Asia told the Tunisian News Agency, but added, “the main purpose of the group is the production and supply of gas in the country and not creating jobs.”

Currently BG provides about 60 percent of Tunisia’s natural gas demand and employs about 1,000 employees.

Finally, further unrest in Algeria could prove troubling to the government’s recent push towards introducing unconventional shale exploration efforts to the country. Boasting significant domestic potential, Algeria will have to first deal with significant foundational investments associated with the shale excavation process in terms of both machinery and technical expertise. To help cope with these early expenses, the national government and the state-backed Sonatrach have unveiled new revenue sharing agreements and taxing schemes aimed at appealing to foreign investors with shale experience. Already known as a risky investment in the region, Algeria could prove even more uninviting if protests and strikes continue to expand.

So far, these protests have elicited little more from state officials than targeted actions according to each, specific case. However, according to the Agence France-Presse, Libya’s Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has threatened to impose “order by force” in to address those actions that threaten the country’s energy sector.

“Oil is our only source of revenue,” he said, according to the AFP report. “We will not allow any (armed) force to confront the people and threaten national security. I warn families, tribes and regions that we will take decisive measures.”

While Tripoli’s hard line may prove effective in garnering local support, it is far less clear whether it will provide the sense of stability needed for foreign firms to return to the region.

Image: The Australian

Originally Posted in Newsbase’s AfrOil Monitor

 

Eastern Med Transport Options Have to Overcome Region’s Political Tension

 

Transport options for the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas discoveries are taking on a familiar political tone as Turkey, Cyprus and Greece stake out European market options.

The current debate centers around how those firms active in the Tamar, Leviathan and Block 12 gas fields, situated in the waters between Israel, Cyprus and Lebanon, will be able to export gas to the European market. Any solution would help Europe reach resource diversification goals by opening up access to some of the largest gas finds in the last decade. However, just as political tension between regional actors have led to overlapping claims to the reserves, transmission solutions have run up against long-standing animosity.

For their part, Israel has pressed for downstream and transmission infrastructure to be built outside their own borders for both security and environmental reasons. This approach has made their partnership with Cyprus all the more important to export options. This has also made the possibility of an export line through Turkey all the more complicated.

Turkey has recently expressed their interest in expanding their regional energy role, with Ambassador Mithat Rende, Director General for Multilateral Economic Affairs at Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs telling the recent Energy and Economic Summit, “Construction of a pipeline to Turkey is the best way to export Israeli gas, both in terms of economics and in terms of energy.” However, this spirit of outreach does not extend to any collaboration with Cyprus. Turkey recently stated that they would boycott those companies that partnered with Cyprus for similar regional exploration efforts.

What Turkey may be pushing for is a re-purposing of the dormant ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) pipeline. After bidding to take on Caspian gas to the European market, the ITGI was shelved amid fears that Greece stakeholders would not be able to financially support it. However, the project’s director of international activities, Dimitris Manolis, told Reuters that he could see the project re-purposed for the Eastern Mediterranean gas finds, offering a link through Greece and Italy by 2018 or 2019. The ITGI would be an upgrade and extension of existing pipelines, estimated to cost $1.6 billion.

A Liquefied Natural Gas solution to the export question received a boost this week with the announcement that Australia’s Woodside had taken on a 30 percent interest in Leviathan gas field, taking on any LNG efforts on the project. Texas-based Noble Gas will be the upstream operator for the effort.

Image: Edison.com

Originally Posted: Newsbase’s Euroil Monitor

Libya’s Lofty Goals Remain But So Do Challenges

After rebounding faster than many thought possible, Libya’s oil and gas sector has set its sights on further expansion with new production goals for this coming March and significant expansion over the next five years. With a plan that includes gradually broadening their exploration efforts, increasing refining capacity and even venturing into unconventional options, including shale, Libya appear poised to finally live up to their energy potential in the region.

Despite such confidence and political will, the North African nation now faces more than its share of challenges standing in the way of those lofty production goals. More than just an additional revenue stream for the country, Libya’s energy output represents the country’s clearest and surest path towards sustainable growth and stability over the coming decade. Currently, Tripoli looks to hydrocarbon revenue for 80 percent of GDP and 97 percent of export earnings, making the sector’s stability and growth all the more vital to Libya’s post-war future.

However, questions about security, shared domestic benefits and confidence among needed foreign partners have cast some doubt about whether the country’s new political leadership have a plan in place to make this happen.

A Quick but Unsure Recovery

With more than 46.4 billion barrels of available crude, Libya is home to Africa’s largest proven oil reserves. Despite the country’s potential, Libya has seen a steady decline in production levels from a 3 million bpd peak in the 1960s. This slowdown was the result of an insufficient infrastructure and political isolation under the leadership of Muammar Gadaffi. Production efforts began to rebound after international sanctions were lifted in 2004, though the government’s handling of the energy sector and underperforming efforts created a cautious atmosphere among foreign firms. The collapse of the Gadaffi government amid widespread violence last year dealt another blow to production efforts last year, but quick action on the part of the transitional government helped output rebound ahead of analysts’ predictions, reaching 1.6 million bpd this month. While still far short of 1960s’ highs, the recovery has offered some confidence, setting up a production goal of 1.72 million bpd by late March and 2.2 million by 2017.

Libya has also been able to increase natural gas output, producing 2.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) a day as of this month, with plans to increase to 3 bcm by the end of the year.

Members of the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) have suggested that the country’s’ short-term goals can be met with only existing projects, moving beyond that amount will require expanding both up and downstream efforts in the coming months.  This will include new production licenses within the next year, according to Reuters, as well as following up on projects that were delayed as a result of the conflict. After signing a $900 million exploration agreement in 2009, BP announced their intent to return to Libya with both on and offshore projects planned.

Further, expansion efforts will include improvements to the country’s refining capacity, which now stands at 378,000 bpd, across five facilities, according to a recent European Commission report. The growth of the country’s refining capacity will be especially important moving forward to address export demands, as well as domestic needs. Libya currently relies on imports for three-quarters of its gasoline needs.

However, the NOC and the country’s new political leadership must first deal with a series of domestic challenges standing in their way, most stemming from the violent conflict that led to the collapse of the Gadaffi government.

In addition to dealing with damage to the country’s energy infrastructure during the civil war, Libya has also been plagued by uncertainty about the country’s security situation. While some companies, including Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol, made quick returns after the war ended, others have remained cautious, with many of the militias that rose up during the conflict still active and armed.

This situation has become more pressing as some of these groups have begun using up and downstream faculties as tools of protests. Recently, a group demanding medical care and compensation for their role in the war halted production at the Zawiya Refinery for three days in protest, costing the country an estimated $30 million in lost revenue, according to Reuters. In addition to lost earnings, the protest spurred action among local workers who threatened protests of their own to demand better security at the facility. So far, Tripoli have been able to avoid such protests with a pledge to hear out workers’ concerns, though no long term solutions have been put on the table. This lack of clarity has been made worse by an ongoing struggle for political influence between the traditional central government in Tripoli and the unofficial capital of the oil-rich east, Benghazi.

A Stable Setting for Foreign Investment

Whatever solution is finally applied to the country’s security situation, it will need to come quick to ensure needed international investors. This is especially true with the country’s current and anticipated energy infrastructure. In addition to boosting transport lines, Libya will need significant investment in unconventional technology if it hopes to reach the estimated 290 trillion cubic meters of shale gas the U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the country holds.

While Libya has not traditionally relied on gas production, the country’s shale potential has forced a reevaluation of its role in the energy sector and the country’s ability to move beyond pre-conflict production levels, NOC Chairman Nuri Berruien told Bloomberg. Reaching those reserves will require costly early investment and appeals to foreign firms with more direct experience with hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’ – the process necessary to extract deep-set shale deposits.

Image: The Wall Street Journal

Originally Posted in Newsbase, Afroil Monitor